# War, Rates & Resilience: Making Sense of Bitcoin in a Crisis

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/cfb-talks-digital-assets-6596525/war-rates-resilience-making-sense-of-bitcoin-in-a-crisis
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/cfb-talks-digital-assets-6596525/war-rates-resilience-making-sense-of-bitcoin-in-a-crisis.md
Podcast: [CFB Talks Digital Assets](https://stenobird.com/podcast/cfb-talks-digital-assets-6596525)
Published: 2026-04-07T19:29:56+00:00
Episode link: https://rss.com/podcasts/cfb-talks-digital-assets/2702387
Audio file: https://content.rss.com/episodes/213732/2702387/cfb-talks-digital-assets/2026_04_07_17_44_34_a39b0340-2e19-4546-bebe-b8e5746089b9.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/cfb-talks-digital-assets-6596525/episodes/war-rates-resilience-making-sense-of-bitcoin-in-a-crisis
Duration seconds: 3399

## Resource

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. In the inaugural CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded April 1 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA and Senior Product Manager Cristian Isac for a wide-ranging markets discussion. The team unpacks Bitcoin's surprising resilience during Operation Epic Fury, why traditional safe havens like Treasuries failed to protect portfolios, and what the Fed's paralysis between inflation and a weakening labor market means for rate expectations heading into the Powell-to-Warsh transition. They also dig into the breakdown of the Bitcoin–M2 money supply relationship (and why that dislocation may signal undervaluation), MicroStrategy's evolving capital structure and preferred yield, the emerging world of Bitcoin structured products, and what institutional appetite on the ground at DAS tells us about where the market is heading next. 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:02 – Operation Epic Fury: Market Reactions & Surprises 03:34 – Why Treasuries Failed as a Safe Haven 04:41 – Bitcoin's Resilience: Holding the Line Through Conflict 05:49 – CF Benchmarks Flagship Index Recap 06:42 – Macro Regimes & Bitcoin's Shifting Role 08:58 – NFP Preview & Labor Market Weakness 10:20 – Fed Policy Paralysis: Inflation vs. Employment 12:54 – Powell's Exit, Warsh's Nomination & Fed Composition 17:30 – Should the Fed Look Through the Inflation Spike? 19:28 – Global Money Supply & Bitcoin: Building a Forecast Model 21:27 – Correlation ≠ Causation: Why Factors Break Down 25:05 – Market Dislocations: Gold vs. Real Yields, Forex & M2-BTC Divergence 28:07 – Where's the Fair Value? The Case for BTC Undervaluation 31:30 –…

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## Transcript

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