# Bonds in 2026: Duration Risk, the Mortgage Disconnect, and Why Japan's Bond Market Should Worry You

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/calm-money-coach-7769257/bonds-in-2026-duration-risk-the-mortgage-disconnect-and-why-japan-s-bond-market-should-worry-you
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/calm-money-coach-7769257/bonds-in-2026-duration-risk-the-mortgage-disconnect-and-why-japan-s-bond-market-should-worry-you.md
Podcast: [Calm Money Coach](https://stenobird.com/podcast/calm-money-coach-7769257)
Published: 2026-02-17T00:00:47+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/calm-money-coach/episodes/Bonds-in-2026-Duration-Risk--the-Mortgage-Disconnect--and-Why-Japans-Bond-Market-Should-Worry-You-e3f6iba
Audio file: https://anchor.fm/s/10ee7ecf8/podcast/play/115607338/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-1-16%2F418239293-44100-2-11245f95475a4.mp3
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Duration seconds: 752

## Resource

In 2022, bonds lost 13%. The long bond ETF dropped 31%. The "safe" part of your portfolio got hit harder than most stock crashes. Now in 2026, bonds are paying real income again for the first time in over a decade. But something is happening in Japan that could push your mortgage rate higher, even if the Bank of Canada keeps cutting. In this episode I break down how bonds actually work, why duration is the risk nobody explains until it's too late, why your fixed mortgage rate doesn't follow the Bank of Canada, what happened on January 20th when Japan's bond market had its most violent day in modern history, the $250 billion yen carry trade, and what Canadian investors should actually do with their bond allocation. I also cover ZAG, VAB, ZFL, ZST, how GICs compare, and the tax optimization move that saves you almost half the tax on your fixed income. This is Part 2 of my series on every asset class ranked by actual returns. Part 1 covered equities. Links to other socials: calmmoneycoach.com

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## Transcript

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