# Prediction Markets Are Bullshit | Business is Bullsh*t Ep 34

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/business-is-bullshit-7096260/prediction-markets-are-bullshit-business-is-bullsh-t-ep-34
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/business-is-bullshit-7096260/prediction-markets-are-bullshit-business-is-bullsh-t-ep-34.md
Podcast: [Business is Bullshit](https://stenobird.com/podcast/business-is-bullshit-7096260)
Published: 2026-05-18T17:30:00+00:00
Episode link: https://385b4acf-6355-4b46-a0c4-d76e364bf60a.libsyn.com/prediction-markets-are-bullshit-business-is-bullsht-ep-34
Audio file: https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/385b4acf-6355-4b46-a0c4-d76e364bf60a/BIBS_34-001.m4a?dest-id=4726657
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/business-is-bullshit-7096260/episodes/prediction-markets-are-bullshit-business-is-bullsh-t-ep-34
Duration seconds: 2469

## Resource

Prediction markets were supposed to be smarter than polls. Put money on the line, cut through the nonsense, and let the wisdom of the crowd tell us what's actually going to happen. Sounds great. Until the crowd turns into whales, bots, insiders, crypto gamblers, politicians, media partners, and people financially incentivized to throw dildos at WNBA games. In this episode of Business is B*llshit, James, Jared, and Jon dig into the prediction market boom and why something that started as a genuinely interesting academic idea has turned into another barely regulated casino with real-world consequences. We get into Kalshi, Polymarket, insider trading, political influence, the CFTC, gambling addiction, media partnerships, market manipulation, war bets, and why the whole thing feels like crypto, sports betting, and Wall Street had a very sketchy baby. Are prediction markets useful? Maybe. Are they being treated like truth machines when they're really just another game people can rig? Absolutely. Watch all our episodes in the usual places: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/business-is-b-t/id1769653675 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1Xv7C9WFxZHeoARrm8EDc5 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BusinessIsBullsht

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## Transcript

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