# Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke | with guest Jordan Staab

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/business-book-club-7646926/thinking-in-bets-by-annie-duke-with-guest-jordan-staab
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/business-book-club-7646926/thinking-in-bets-by-annie-duke-with-guest-jordan-staab.md
Podcast: [Business Book Club](https://stenobird.com/podcast/business-book-club-7646926)
Published: 2026-02-09T06:03:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sam-brown-572215181/
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/721ae665-e579-41c0-bd72-4c907ba4ea0a.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/business-book-club-7646926/episodes/thinking-in-bets-by-annie-duke-with-guest-jordan-staab
Duration seconds: 1692

## Resource

Most founders treat business decisions like chess, assuming that if they make the right move, they'll get the right outcome. But business isn't chess; it's poker. You can make the perfect decision and still lose. You can make a terrible decision and get lucky. Joining me to unpack this superb book is Jordan Staab , CEO of BetterFinances.org. Jordan is a serial entrepreneur who has raised over $200 million for VCs and led ventures worth over $30 million. In this episode, Jordan explains how to separate your results from your decision quality, why saying "I'm 100% sure" is destroying your strategy, and how to build a truth-seeking inner circle to vet your bets. Key Takeaways & Timestamps 00:00 – Thinking in Bets - why business is like poker, not chess 02:13 – Separate Outcome from Decision: Why a good outcome doesn't mean you made a good decision (and vice versa). 04:20 – The 50/80 Rule: How much data do you need before acting? Jordan explains his framework for balancing speed vs. confidence. 05:46 – The "iPhone Fingerprint" Analogy: Why you never have perfect information and how to gather just enough data to map the problem. 06:40 – Think in Probabilities, Not Absolutes: Jordan shares the "80% Question" he asks his team when creating financial projections. 09:24 – Climbing the Wrong Mountain: How to use decision trees to avoid backing your business into a corner. 11:27 – Standardize Your Decision Process: Why a problem well-defined is half-solved, and how to create a simple template for evaluating new ideas. 14:39 – Resulting is a Trap: The danger of judging the quality of a decision solely by its outcome (e.g., winning with a 7-2 offsuit in poker). 19:17 – The "Weddings & Funerals" Knowledge Gap: Why you need a truth-seeking inner circle to sanity-check your de…

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## Transcript

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