# The US-Iran Deal Trump Knows He Has to Take

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/brave-the-new-world-7682826/the-us-iran-deal-trump-knows-he-has-to-take
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/brave-the-new-world-7682826/the-us-iran-deal-trump-knows-he-has-to-take.md
Podcast: [Brave The New World](https://stenobird.com/podcast/brave-the-new-world-7682826)
Published: 2026-05-12T18:16:33+00:00
Episode link: https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/9ef48b616f2f941157a31d71cafff5d30167023c1f627526fa06d58394b91d36/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI5Y2U4Mzc2Yi0xNjY1LTRkZjItOTc5Ni02NDJhNzYyYWQ4Y2YiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiJhMGQ4NjU2ZS03NDY5LTRjZTYtYmZjMi1mZTE0MTk3Mjc2ZjAiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NGZmOTRiYTdmZTU3YjQ3MjVhMzk3ZGQiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmEwMzcwNjE0ZjFjYjBhNzExOGViZDY1L21hdHQtdmlkcy1jb21wb3Nlci0yMDI2LTUtMTJfXzIwLTI0LTMzLm1wMyJ9.mp3
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Duration seconds: 2517

## Resource

Iran sent its response to the United States this weekend. Trump posted "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" on Truth Social. He knows what the deal is going to look like. So does anyone willing to look at the receipts. The Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran. The blockade is theater. The polling at home is the worst any wartime president has ever seen. Gas is climbing toward five dollars and the midterms are six months away. This episode walks through what's actually on the table, what's actually happening at the Strait, and why Lebanon is the piece this whole thing turns on. Israel went to war to topple Iran. Israel couldn't. So Netanyahu pivoted to taking land — Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon. The trade Trump is negotiating right now is whether the United States keeps providing the cover. Plus the four pressure points crushing Trump's clock at home, the damage to American credibility abroad, and what to watch in the next two weeks. Chapters 0:00 — Trump Knows 2:00 — What's Actually on the Table 9:00 — The Strait, the Blockade, and the Geography Problem 17:00 — Lebanon Is the Real Trade 27:00 — Why Trump's Clock Is Running Out 37:00 — The View From Outside 45:00 — What Comes Next, and the Close What this episode covers The 14-point US Memorandum of Understanding and Iran's counterproposal Why the US naval blockade of Iranian ports is theater The Lebanon-as-carrot trade between Trump and Netanyahu The third round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks at the State Department this Wednesday and Thursday The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing the same days The Massie primary in Kentucky The five signals to watch over the next two weeks

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## Transcript

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