# The Physics of SpaceX

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/blind-squirrel-macro-the-pod-6582174/the-physics-of-spacex
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/blind-squirrel-macro-the-pod-6582174/the-physics-of-spacex.md
Podcast: [Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod](https://stenobird.com/podcast/blind-squirrel-macro-the-pod-6582174)
Published: 2026-05-24T11:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-physics-of-spacex
Audio file: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/198913764/69ac22635d5bc021c7f82a6cce2d04d8.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/blind-squirrel-macro-the-pod-6582174/episodes/the-physics-of-spacex
Duration seconds: 861

## Resource

Blind Squirrel Macro paid subscriptions are paused until early June. I am unable to accept new paid subscribers until then. This is a special free edition. In addition, I have removed the paywall on SpaceX material from earlier this year (links at the bottom of the note). Please share this public service announcement far and wide! The ‘Start the Week’ note will be out for existing paid subscribers on Sunday night or Monday morning EST. Please get in touch if you recently subscribed to my work and are interested in a trial / review of the archive. The Physics of SpaceX Well, the SpaceX S-1 finally dropped this week. As you know, the 🐿️ (together with podcasting partner Benny) have been following this one very closely. Even if you (like this rodent) have no intention of placing an order in the IPO, all investors and traders have no choice but to pay attention to the circus. The latest ‘price talk’ for the deal is that SpaceX is expecting to raise $75bn at a valuation of $1.75trn (more on that later) in mid June. Including the 15% greenshoe, the company’s underwriters will need to place $86.25bn worth of stock. There is no (even vaguely close) historical precedent to such a raise, and I think it will place a huge test on the stability of the US equity market. But right now the ducks are quacking - Polymarket odds are pricing a 74% probability of an end of listing day market capitalization for SpaceX in excess of $2trn. And if the SpaceX common stock is insufficiently racy for you, the ETF Sponsor community has already filed some completely degenerate alternatives for you. I imagine that listed weekly options will be also on the menu within days of listing. Once you have browsed through the glossy rocket photos and voluminous risk factors of the SpaceX S-1 , you soon stumb…

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## Transcript

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