# $200 Oil by June?—The Biggest Oil Shock in History | Rory Johnston on The Hormuz Crisis

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/bankless-357756/200-oil-by-june-the-biggest-oil-shock-in-history-rory-johnston-on-the-hormuz-crisis
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/bankless-357756/200-oil-by-june-the-biggest-oil-shock-in-history-rory-johnston-on-the-hormuz-crisis.md
Podcast: [Bankless](https://stenobird.com/podcast/bankless-357756)
Published: 2026-04-29T11:33:00+00:00
Episode link: https://episode.flightcast.com/01KQCG1CA1H8CQSEBSYKCSPT8K.mp3
Audio file: https://episode.flightcast.com/01KQCG1CA1H8CQSEBSYKCSPT8K.mp3
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Duration seconds: 7782

## Resource

Rory Johnston, the “oil quant,” joins us to explain why the Hormuz crisis could become the biggest oil shock in history. Oil markets are already screaming. Supply is trapped, inventories are being drained, and the market may still be underpricing the scale of the disruption. If the Strait stays closed, Rory says the path to $200 oil is no longer crazy. It may be the next stop. This is oil, geopolitics, inflation, and markets all colliding at once. ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🟦 COINBASE ONE | GET 20% OFF https://bankless.cc/coinbase-one 🦊 METAMASK | DOWNLOAD NOW https://go.metamask.io/BL-Pod-Download 🌐BRIX | EMERGING MARKET YIELD https://bankless.cc/brix 💰NEXO | YIELD + CREDIT LINE https://bankless.cc/nexo 🧭OKX | TRADE, EARN, PAY https://app.okx.com/join/USBANKLESS ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:17 What is a Barrel of Oil? 7:04 How is Oil Transported? 8:24 Is Oil Fungible? 13:25 Oil Then Vs Now 17:10 Peak Oil? 24:59 Hydrocarbon World Distribution 29:32 What is Spare Capacity? 32:14 Inventories in the Buffer System 35:04 Oil Futures 38:59 Oil Curve 44:51 Economic Implications of Oil Markets 48:48 Straight of Hormuz 55:30 Future Oil Price Action 1:03:53 Steelmanning the Market Reaction 1:13:23 When will the Straight Open? 1:21:57 Is the USA Winning? 1:27:49 Pressuring Iran 1:31:48 Signals to Watch 1:33:36 Fast Forward to 2050 1:38:38 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Rory Johnston https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Commodity Context https://www.commoditycontext.com/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

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