# Prediction Markets Explained, Why People Are Betting On Politics Instead Of Trusting The Media  |  4/15/26

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/at-the-mic-with-keith-malinak-7173299/prediction-markets-explained-why-people-are-betting-on-politics-instead-of-trusting-the-media-4-15-26
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/at-the-mic-with-keith-malinak-7173299/prediction-markets-explained-why-people-are-betting-on-politics-instead-of-trusting-the-media-4-15-26.md
Podcast: [At The Mic With Keith Malinak](https://stenobird.com/podcast/at-the-mic-with-keith-malinak-7173299)
Published: 2026-04-15T23:30:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.atmshow.com
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/7c181170-be11-46de-8d94-229291616677.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/at-the-mic-with-keith-malinak-7173299/episodes/prediction-markets-explained-why-people-are-betting-on-politics-instead-of-trusting-the-media-4-15-26
Duration seconds: 4307

## Resource

Prediction markets are changing how people understand elections, media trust, and political outcomes. As confidence in the media and polling declines, more people are turning to prediction markets to follow where the money is going and what it reveals. The system feels broken, so people started looking somewhere else for answers. Not the media. Not the polls. What the money is saying is catching a lot of people off guard… In this At The Mic Wild Card Wednesday, Keith Malinak is joined by Stu Burguiere for a conversation that starts with a simple question and quickly turns into something much bigger, as they explore what happens when the system people rely on begins to crack, and a different signal starts to emerge, one that doesn’t come from headlines, talking points, or spin, but from where people are putting their money, revealing a growing shift in how outcomes in politics, media, and culture are being understood, and forcing a deeper question, when trust disappears, where do people actually turn for the truth. The episode also touches on the history of income tax, the NFL Rooney Rule, and broader questions about institutional trust, media credibility, and how narratives are formed versus what outcomes actually reveal. Chapters: 00:00 The System Feels Broken… Here’s Why 02:10 From Glenn Beck to Now, What Changed? 10:05 Life After The Machine 19:30 The Tax System Nobody Questions 24:00 Why This System Still Exists 29:40 The Rooney Rule Problem Nobody Fixes 33:00 What They’re Not Telling You 37:40 Prediction Markets Explained Simply 41:50 Why People Are Betting On Politics 45:30 The Money vs The Narrative 47:10 The Future of Predictable If the system feels broken, the real question isn’t just why, it’s what you trust instead. Are you following narratives, or are you p…

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/at-the-mic-with-keith-malinak-7173299/episodes/prediction-markets-explained-why-people-are-betting-on-politics-instead-of-trusting-the-media-4-15-26/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/at-the-mic-with-keith-malinak-7173299/prediction-markets-explained-why-people-are-betting-on-politics-instead-of-trusting-the-media-4-15-26.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.