# Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/astral-codex-ten-podcast-226483/next-token-predictor-is-an-ai-s-job-not-its-species
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/astral-codex-ten-podcast-226483/next-token-predictor-is-an-ai-s-job-not-its-species.md
Podcast: [Astral Codex Ten Podcast](https://stenobird.com/podcast/astral-codex-ten-podcast-226483)
Published: 2026-04-02T01:07:00+00:00
Episode link: https://sscpodcast.libsyn.com/next-token-predictor-is-an-ais-job-not-its-species
Audio file: https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/sscpodcast/Next-Token_Predictor_Is_An_AIs_Job_Not_Its_Species.mp3?dest-id=586545
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Duration seconds: 974

## Resource

I. In The Argument, Kelsey Piper gives a good description of the ways that AIs are more than just "next-token predictors" or "stochastic parrots" - for example, they also use fine-tuning and RLHF. But commenters, while appreciating the subtleties she introduces, object that they're still just extra layers on top of a machine that basically runs on next-token prediction. I want to approach this from a different direction. I think overemphasizing next-token prediction is a confusion of levels. On the levels where AI is a next-token predictor, you are also a next-token (technically: next-sense-datum) predictor. On the levels where you're not a next-token predictor, AI isn't one either.

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