# Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg-1015378/nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fading-aoc-might-win-it-all-in-2028
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg-1015378/nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fading-aoc-might-win-it-all-in-2028.md
Podcast: [All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg](https://stenobird.com/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg-1015378)
Published: 2026-06-29T15:47:00+00:00
Episode link: https://allinchamathjason.libsyn.com/nate-silver-predicts-democrats-take-the-house-newsom-is-fading-aoc-might-win-it-all-in-2028
Audio file: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/allinchamathjason/FINAL_PASS_NATE_SILVER.mp3?dest-id=1928300
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Duration seconds: 3642

## Resource

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC Thanks to our partners! Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Nate: https://x.com/NateSilver538 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro…

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